Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 0.047658 0.054061 0.061204 0.069798 0.079907 0.091476 0.105802
2026-01-04 0.039804 0.048218 0.058396 0.071749 0.089007 0.110839 0.140995
2026-01-11 0.033455 0.042860 0.055060 0.072347 0.096708 0.130591 0.182718
2026-01-18 0.028435 0.038295 0.051921 0.072658 0.104397 0.152870 0.236141
2026-01-25 0.023900 0.033620 0.047824 0.070883 0.108985 0.172622 0.294606
2026-02-01 0.019958 0.029153 0.043264 0.067531 0.110545 0.188707 0.355491
2026-02-08 0.017547 0.026611 0.041222 0.067881 0.118752 0.220017 0.463792
2026-02-15 0.015568 0.024441 0.039412 0.068310 0.127552 0.256765 0.609592
2026-02-22 0.014057 0.022809 0.038241 0.069721 0.139084 0.305405 0.826014
2026-03-01 0.012731 0.021292 0.037016 0.070808 0.150632 0.360961 1.120112
2026-03-08 0.011340 0.019452 0.034874 0.069536 0.156574 0.406311 1.437841
2026-03-15 0.009812 0.017150 0.031464 0.064742 0.152323 0.421079 1.661170
2026-03-22 0.008966 0.016060 0.030377 0.065195 0.162869 0.492018 2.277056
2026-03-29 0.008340 0.015317 0.029894 0.067050 0.178605 0.595250 3.322027
2026-04-05 0.007694 0.014444 0.028985 0.067651 0.191202 0.699908 4.724342
2026-04-12 0.007108 0.013617 0.028047 0.067979 0.203479 0.818231 6.765029
2026-04-19 0.006477 0.012615 0.026542 0.066375 0.208536 0.909988 9.076327
2026-04-26 0.005844 0.011531 0.024681 0.063305 0.206988 0.967855 11.414344
2026-05-03 0.005461 0.010961 0.023994 0.063651 0.219636 1.130438 17.079826
2026-05-10 0.005121 0.010448 0.023371 0.064065 0.233209 1.324429 26.333985
2026-05-17 0.004854 0.010071 0.023041 0.065385 0.252108 1.597584 44.361442
2026-05-24 0.004598 0.009692 0.022646 0.066403 0.270644 1.913698 76.862292
2026-05-31 0.004287 0.009141 0.021701 0.065237 0.277558 2.142207 119.059667